MLB draft 2024: Five takeaways from first round historically light on high school picks
FORT WORTH, Texas – Major League Baseball’s draft was once an inexact science conducted in a publicly imperceptible fashion.
Well, the science is getting a lot more exact and the spotlight even more unrelenting.
For the fourth year, MLB attached its annual player selection meeting to the All-Star Game, opened the doors to an old calf-roping coliseum and let a gaggle of jersey-clad fans boo commissioner Rob Manfred, cheer their teams’ picks and dap up the six suit-clad prospects who dared wait out the green room before going to shake the commish’s hand.
The evolution is not just in the glitz and the double-barreled network coverage. Sunday’s show at Cowtown Coliseum also showed the subtle shifts in how tomorrow’s big leaguers are selected today.
Here are five takeaways from the draft's opening night:
Follow every MLB game: Latest MLB scores, stats, schedules and standings.
Where are all the high schoolers?
Teams made history Sunday night: The first eight players drafted were collegians, the longest drought for high schoolers to start a draft since it was instituted in 1965. No prep talent heard their name called until the Pittsburgh Pirates selected Mississippi shortstop Konnor Griffin at No. 9, with the other top scholastic talent, shortstop Bryce Rainer, falling to Detroit at No. 11.
They were the only high schoolers picked in the top 15.
This was unprecedented: Only the pandemic year of 2020 – when high school seasons in the vast majority of the country hadn’t even started before they were shut down – had the first high schooler had to wait until even the eighth pick.
Four times in the past decade, a high schooler was the No. 1 overall pick, including 2022 (Jackson Holliday, Orioles), when preps accounted for four of the first five picks and six of 15. Since 2000, a high schooler was chosen 1/1 11 times, nearly half the total.
What gives?
Well, this was an exceedingly weak draft both overall and specifically in the high school ranks. The COVID-19 pandemic also resulted in many top talents earlier this decade attending school since they could not be properly scouted.
And cutting the draft down to 20 rounds and limiting the number of jobs in the minor leagues prompt kids to stay in school, too.
But there’s also motivations on both ends of the equation to lean toward college.
Top college programs are now loaded up with any and all cutting-edge technology for both player tracking and development. They can also pay top coaches more than they’d earn as minor league instructors, resulting in pro-level teaching.
And for players, the NIL gold rush means they no longer have to scavenge without a signing bonus. LSU and other top schools can keep talents like Paul Skenes and Tommy White both well-compensated and cared for.
Where are all the pitchers?
Yeah, the Tommy John scourge and the inventory problems aren’t just limited to the major league level. While the Cincinnati Reds surprised the industry by drafting Wake Forest right-hander Chase Burns second overall, that board-jumping did little to stimulate the arm activity.
After the White Sox snagged Arkansas lefty Hagen Smith at No. 5, 10 more picks elapsed before the Seattle Mariners picked ambidextrous but primarily right-handed Mississippi State star Jurrangelo Cijnte 15th.
Left-hander Cam Caminiti was the first prep pitcher taken – at No. 24 overall.
What gives, part II?
Well, Tommy John is never far away. A pair of two-way stars – Florida’s Jac Caglianone (Royals, sixth) and Oklahoma State outfielder Carson Benge (Mets, 19th) underwent the procedure already, which will likely limit both to hitting as their pro careers proceeds.
The elbow’s UCL is just one reason hitters – particularly collegiate hitters – offer so much more certainty. Additionally, scouting and player development arms are more confident than ever they can take unheralded talents and maximize their talents, both with pitch usage and development.
So keep finding barrels, kids.
Southern comfort
After Oregon State’s Travis Bazzana was picked No. 1 overall, 11 of the next 14 players selected hailed from either Southeastern or Atlantic Coast Conference schools.
That tracks with the most recent College World Series, in which the field was comprised entirely of ACC and SEC teams.
Wake Forest had three players taken in the top 10, giving the Demon Deacons five first-rounders the past two years. And the SEC had 16 of the top 60 picks.
Does it truly just matter more?
“The SEC is the best of the best,” says Tennessee infielder Christian Moore, taken eighth overall by the Los Angeles Angels. “You got guys like Paul Skenes coming out, Brandon Sproat coming out, Friday night guys who are top-round picks.
“It definitely prepares you for pro ball. I don’t know what it’s like, but I hope it’s fun.”
Telling that Moore would lump Sproat, a second-round pick of the Mets out of Florida in 2023, in the same breath as Skenes, who leaped from 1/1 in 2023 to starting the All-Star Game in 2024. While Sun Belt schools always had a weather advantage, the same advantages that lure high school kids to college – NIL, excellent facilities, pro-level coaches – are exacerbated in the SEC and ACC.
Yes, the rich will continue to get richer.
ADS: Always Draft Shortstops
If you’ve read this far, you probably are well-aware teams are far less likely to draft for need than, say, an NFL club in desperate need of a quarterback. Yet it can’t be stressed enough that clubs are wise to aim for the best available athlete.
And that person will more than likely be a shortstop.
Eleven of the top 56 first-day picks were shortstops, even as a player’s evolution (or, yes, big league need once they bubble up to the majors) will likely bump him off the position.
No matter. A shortstop can always get nudged to another high-leverage position, which may happen once 2024 collegiate draftees JJ Wetherholt (Cardinals, Masyn Winn), Griff O’Ferrall (Orioles, Gunnar Henderson) and Seaver King (Nationals, CJ Abrams) reach the bigs and find an entrenched incumbent.
The Orioles, for instance, have an entire infield (Ryan Mountcastle, Jorge Mateo, Henderson and Jordan Westburg) drafted as shortstops.
Pick-me energy
Has Manfred’s pet project to push the draft front and center, and highlight emerging players, paid off?
There are so many intangibles beyond measurables like ratings (though they’ll likely be lauded, with the prime Sunday night ESPN real estate) that determine whether Manfred’s determination to make the draft happen will pay off.
Even in this dead of summer, it’s an interesting gambit to grab a larger slice of the attention economy. The one-hour ESPN broadcast was jammed in between a game in the nascent WNBA and the NBA Summer League, up against the Copa America final. Here in the Metroplex, SEC football media days begin Wednesday.
They did their darnedest to make it a show for the locals. Calf ropers gave lasso exhibitions. Mascots helped with line dancing lessons. They pumped DJ music and a gaggle of baseball and country and country baseball hits - It’s Five O’Clock Somewhere, Centerfield, Wagon Wheel, Boot Scootin’ Boogie, Friends In Low Places – throughout the coliseum. Draftees and their families were nattily attired.
Pretty good time!
Will sports fans set their internal clock to this second Sunday in July? Like the wide-eyed kids drafted Sunday, it remains a work in progress.