How clutch are the Baltimore Orioles? And what does it mean for their World Series hopes?
The 2023 Baltimore Orioles – in first-place in the American League, on pace to record 102 wins, and having just secured their first playoff berth since 2016 – are obviously coming into their own this season. They are filled to the brim with young superstar talent, and are set to contend in the AL East for years to come.
Above all else though, they've been tremendously clutch.
All of those stats are great, but arguably the greatest demonstrator of the Orioles' clutch prowess is found elsewhere.
Exactly how clutch have the Orioles been?
MLB Fangraphs has a clutch statistic that determines "how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment.” They determine this figure by taking a team's Win Probability Added, dividing that by the teams Average Leverage Index, and subtracting that entire quotient by the team's Situational Wins.
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In the last 10 seasons, the 2023 Orioles have the third-highest clutch rating in MLB, behind only the 2021 Seattle Mariners and the 2016 Texas Rangers.
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How does this affect the Orioles' World Series aspirations?
The 2021 Mariners (90-72) didn't even reach the postseason. While the 2016 Texas Rangers (95-67) did earn the No. 1 seed in the American League, they were swept in the ALDS by the Toronto Blue Jays. That's not a good omen for Baltimore's avian club.
Even worse, there are a multitude of poor teams near the top of the clutch leaderboards as well: The 2023 Colorado Rockies (56-94) have the sixth-highest clutch rating in the last 10 years. The 2023 Washington Nationals (66-85) rank 15th.
That said, the 2018 Red Sox (fifth), 2015 Kansas City Royals (seventh), 2014 San Francisco Giants (19th), and 2014 Kansas City Royals (20th) all either won or reached their respective World Series'.
That stat alone does not tell us enough. But if we filter out teams with a Win Probability Added of less than 8.0, the list starts looking much better. Among all 300 teams, only 13 recorded a Win Probability Added of 8.0 or more and were a net-positive clutch team. Two of them haven't finished their seasons (the 2023 Orioles and 2023 Atlanta Braves), so we can't really determine their success.
Here are the remaining eleven:
- 2019 Los Angeles Dodgers (lost in NLDS, 3-2 to WS champions Washington)
- 2022 Los Angeles Dodgers (lost in NLDS, 3-2 to San Diego)
- 2018 Boston Red Sox (won WS)
- 2014 Los Angeles Angels (lost in ALDS, 3-0 to AL champions Kansas City)
- 2022 New York Mets (lost in NLWC, 2-1 to San Diego)
- 2021 San Francisco Giants (lost in NLDS, 3-2 to Los Angeles)
- 2016 Texas Rangers (lost in ALDS, 3-0 to Toronto)
- 2019 Atlanta Braves (lost in NLDS, 3-2 to St. Louis)
- 2019 Washington Nationals (won WS)
- 2019 New York Yankees (lost in ALCS, 4-2 to AL champions Houston)
- 2017 Los Angeles Dodgers (lost in WS, 4-3 to WS champions Houston)
As you can see, the results are pretty varied, but mostly point against the Orioles' 2023 World Series hopes. Only two of these teams went on to win the World Series. Only two more made it past the Divisional Series. Seven of these eleven teams lost in their first playoff round.
The Orioles have been among MLB's biggest lovable losers for years, and it's probably safe to assume that most fans love seeing them achieve this level of success after years of basement-dwelling. History might not be on the Orioles' side, though, when the MLB postseason begins on Oct. 3.